株価の上下

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「この会社は今後業績が上がりそう,だから買う」
と言うことで株価は上がるんやろうね,本来.
そのはずだった,と言うか何と言うか.
でも実際は,
「この会社は今後業績が上がりそう,とみんなが思って
 買うだろうから,買う」
ってなってるような気がして.

テクニカル分析とかそもそもおかしいと思うの.
「チャートのこの線とこの線が交わってるから,買い」
なんやねんそれは.
結局株価の上下なんて,
買われる株と売られる株の数の比率ぐらいでしか決まらないわけで.
(株も他の「商品」と同じで,いくらで買います,売ります,と言う取引なので)
言うたら,どっかの大金持ちが気まぐれで
「なんか気分いいしここの株100億ほど買っとくか」
って言うので変化しちゃう.
100億円分誰かが売るのかどうかはまた別の話として.

それでもテクニカル分析と言うのもある程度通用するらしく.
それはきっと
「みんながテクニカル分析しててこの線とこの線が交わってるのは
 売りのサイン(ってことになってる)だから売られるはず.
 だから俺も売ろう.」
って感じだからなのかな.

結局のところ,市場(株価)ってのは色んな人の色んな気持ちで
変化しておるんだなぁ,と思います.
株価が上がるって事は,
「上がると思ってる人(の株の数合計)が多いから」
だと.
市場が世の中の色んな情報を織り込んでる,
って言うのはそういうことなのかも知れない.

なかなかやりがいのありそうなゲームです.

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このページは、まんとるが2006年1月12日 01:53に書いたブログ記事です。

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